Infoworlds Tom Yager is getting a deserved reputation for mincing no words. Here is his description of the IT Recovery for the next few years from the Dec 20th, 2004 issue:
“Your life lessons in self-sufficiency will serve you well as you get to know the son of the son of the new economy. I think hes going to be a homely cuss at best. The ultrasound is inconclusive for horns and a tail. ”
Tom goes on to describe in Hard Pill to Swallow the full reach of outsourcing and the Cheap Revolution (it likely can and will be produced much more cheaply elsewhere where elsewhere is defined as China, India, China, Taiwan, China, and maybe Eastern Europe) as being pervasive influences for the next 3-5 years.
In the January 2005 issue, Tom is responsible for the 2005 look ahead in computing hardware and servers . Again he is straight to the point.
“The 64-bit future is here. Among the OS platform players, only Microsoft faces the overwhelming challenge of convincing thousands of ISVs to port their 32-bit applications to 64-bit hardware. Windows has a well-earned reputation as a haven for the kind of sloppy code that mucks up big systems and gets Unix programmers fired. Our tip: If you buy into 64-bit Windows, go with managed (.Net) and Java applications whenever you can.”
“As hardware gets more expensive in 2005, IT will discover it has three new friends: AMD, IBM, and Apple. AMD owned 2004, forcing Intel to ape its instruction set and closing deals with all the first-tier server vendors but Dell, which has expressed interest in climbing aboard. Why would IBM, HP, Sun, and Dell opt for AMD’s Opteron over Intel’s new Xeon EM64T (Extended
Memory 64-bit Technology)? Because Intel planted the 64-bit instructions in a 32-bit Xeon chip that lives on Intel’s ages-old shared I/O bus. For Opteron and Athlon 64, AMD completely redesigned the processor and the system buses. If you’re not into architectural nuts and bolts, take our word for it: Intel’s got a lot of catching up to do.”
As IT and the trade press scale back, it is interesting to see how the old guard of pundits mesh with the new lean and mean analysts. Tom stands up very well indeed.
(c)Jacques Surveyer 2005