Phoney War?

Everybody keeps telling me that the mobile phone race is over – Apple has won the top tier and Microsoft-machines will clean-up on the low end. May be not.

First, Nokia is open-sourcing Symbian with a consortia of manufacturers and major mobile phone services. With a good operating system going open more developers will be attracted and the minimal price versus $15/phone from Microsoft is right for margin thin mobile manufactures. Next Googles Android does the same Open Source and offers iPhone like features but Linux as the base and an already open App Store that does not gouge 30% off the top like Apple. Finally, the darn RIM guys keep one-upping Apple and Microsoft in terms of hardware and software.

Like the Stock Market Correcting in 1929 Fashion

Like the Stock Markets currently correcting in 1929 fashion – this is no phoney war. There is a real war going on for the mobile phone market. The mobile phone will become the Swiss Army Knife of daily electronic communication, calculation and collaboration. Too many players see this like the late 1970s and early 1980s when PCs came on the scene and displaced mini-computers and mainframes as the main source of computing interface with users both home and business. Mobile devices are doing the Deja Vu Scene again. Literally Client/Server computing back then evolved rapidly – with Client going before Server in terms of innovation and market importance. And of course Moores Law helped a doubling in all things electronics in terms of capacity, speed, and reliability every 15-18 months. And the big monopolist then, IBM, was unable to control the ball game. Ditto for now, the big monopolist, Microsoft, is Zuning in on a jit above mediocrity because its software return on equity does not allow it to take the beating that this market, already well down the opportunity cost curves demands. So take a look at what is happening here as the PC race all over, just adjust for whose the big players.